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TITAN//CAPABILITY
Revision 7T · Full Tutorial Edition · Updated 1 September 2026

Gold pathway · G-CUR-011

Reasoning, Decisions & Strategy

Deduction, induction, probability, causal reasoning, systems thinking, uncertainty decisions and planning.

Canonical-unit rule: open each canonical Power unit in the declared order. Complete only lessons whose current treatment authorises practice. Evidence, specialist, research, restricted and status records never become self-training merely because they appear in a pathway.

Add this pathway as a starting point
You can remove, reorder or combine its units with any other Powers in Cockpit.

Canonical Power units

Unit 1 · TLU-PWR-113Self-guided lesson

PWR-113 · Deductive reasoning

This exercise asks one narrow question: if all stated premises were true, would the conclusion have to be true? The eight arguments use invented categories so real-world beliefs do not decide the answer. For an invalid argument, supply one possible case where every premise is true and the conclusion false. For a valid argument, state the short chain that makes a counterexample impossible. Plausibility, confidence and factual truth are not substitutes for validity. The cards are untimed and may be represented in plain language, symbols, audio or diagrams. Do not transfer the score to intelligence, general rationality or consequential legal, clinical, financial, employment or security judgments; those require domain expertise and accountable review. Stop if the drill becomes an intelligence comparison, high-pressure timed test or tool for a real dispute.

Tutorial mode: practical lesson

Capability self-practice: Permitted inside the governed tutorial limits

Teaching: Full Power-specific tutorial available

Unit 2 · TLU-PWR-114Self-guided lesson

PWR-114 · Inductive inference

Inductive inference means proposing more than one rule from limited examples, predicting new cases before seeing their memberships and revising without erasing the original prediction. This pack begins with three fictional cards. The learner generates two candidate rules, predicts all three hidden test memberships and locks confidence before opening one staged key. The goal is a better-supported rule with visible uncertainty, not certainty from a tiny pattern set.

Tutorial mode: practical lesson

Capability self-practice: Permitted inside the governed tutorial limits

Teaching: Full Power-specific tutorial available

Unit 3 · TLU-PWR-115Self-guided lesson

PWR-115 · Probabilistic reasoning

This tutorial teaches the full forecast-record cycle on ten benign fictional events. Define the event and reference class, convert favourable cases to a natural frequency, lock a probability, reveal the staged outcome, calculate the Brier score, preserve every row, inspect the direction of the largest errors and write one method update for a fresh set. The exercise is not financial, medical or safety-critical forecasting.

Tutorial mode: practical lesson

Capability self-practice: Permitted inside the governed tutorial limits

Teaching: Full Power-specific tutorial available

Unit 4 · TLU-PWR-116Self-guided lesson

PWR-116 · Causal reasoning

Causal reasoning asks more than whether two variables move together. This pack supplies four fictional cases spanning observation, self-selection, and randomised intervention. The learner names cause and outcome, checks design and time order, generates alternatives, proposes discriminating evidence, and writes a bounded classification. Numerical differences remain descriptive until design supports a causal interpretation.

Tutorial mode: practical lesson

Capability self-practice: Permitted inside the governed tutorial limits

Teaching: Full Power-specific tutorial available

Unit 5 · TLU-PWR-117Full low-stakes tutorial

PWR-117 · Systems thinking

The learner produces a legible system map with a declared boundary, one stock, two flows, one feedback loop, one delay, evidence labels and a falsification check.

Tutorial mode: self guided

Capability self-practice: Permitted inside the tutorial's stated low-risk limits

Teaching: Full Power-specific tutorial available

Unit 6 · TLU-PWR-118Full supervised tutorial

PWR-118 · Expert judgement

Under a qualified provider, the learner completes at least 20 resolved domain cases and produces a Brier score (mean squared probability error), calibration bands, discrimination and an error review for the declared case mix.

Tutorial mode: supervised

Capability self-practice: Qualified supervision is required for the practical method

Teaching: Full Power-specific tutorial available

Unit 7 · TLU-PWR-119Full low-stakes tutorial

PWR-119 · Decision under uncertainty

The learner produces a traceable fictional decision record with options, probability ranges, consequences, protected constraints, sensitivity analysis, threshold and update rule.

Tutorial mode: self guided

Capability self-practice: Permitted inside the tutorial's stated low-risk limits

Teaching: Full Power-specific tutorial available

Unit 8 · TLU-PWR-120Full low-stakes tutorial

PWR-120 · Strategic planning

The learner creates a fictional strategy with a measurable outcome, backward milestones, dependencies, assumptions, one disruption rehearsal, review triggers and a retirement rule.

Tutorial mode: self guided

Capability self-practice: Permitted inside the tutorial's stated low-risk limits

Teaching: Full Power-specific tutorial available

Pathway framework

  1. Orient
    Read the scope, prerequisites and authority treatment.
  2. Traverse
    Open each canonical Power unit in order.
  3. Integrate
    Connect permitted lessons without enlarging their claims.
  4. Transfer
    Use predeclared contexts and record limitations.
  5. Maintain
    Review, retain, retire or seek qualified support.

Pathway completion record

Record which canonical units were opened, which governed lessons were completed, which were explanation-only, and what transfer or maintenance decision followed. Pathway completion does not create validation, qualification or promotion.