# PWR-126 — Uncertainty communication: learner worksheet Release: Revision 7T · Full Tutorial Edition Estimated time: Estimated 17 min reading and worksheet pass Difficulty: Introductory Equipment: Basic stationery or digital tools — The fictional delivery scenario in the fixture caption; A blank baseline-message and teach-back prediction worksheet; The six-item checklist: window, number plus plain language, source, limit, action and change trigger; The uncertainty labels ALEATORY, EPISTEMIC and MIXED; The staged model message and teach-back key, opened only after the learner's baseline and repair are locked Space: Desk / seated Automated structural checklist: 10 of 10 structural checks present Evidence quality/context: G1; Focused research depth Automated method-quality band: Established Method-rating basis: Structure coverage, instruction/check specificity, alternative distinctness, source troubleshooting, comparison depth and whether purpose/check fields are authored rather than derived. Editorial review: Pending manual editorial sign off ## Before you begin - [ ] I read the tutorial authority and stop conditions. - [ ] I have the required equipment/space or a declared accessible alternative. ## Canonical source context Communicating uncertainty means stating the estimate, its basis, a meaningful limit, and what changes the next action. This pack supplies a harmless delivery dataset, three draft messages, reader teach-backs, and a six-item scoring checklist. The learner repairs misunderstanding rather than chasing reassurance, trust, or persuasion. Target outcome: Define uncertainty communication without inheriting mythology or broader claims. Explain what the current evidence supports and what it does not establish. Use the declared measurement boundary and recognise misleading proxies. Complete only the separately governed capability practice inside its declared limits. Make a retention, transfer, maintenance, provider or stop decision without overclaiming. ### Authority and setup conditions - Use only the fictional archive-box scenario; do not adapt it to medicine, crisis response, politics, finance, legal advice, or another high-stakes message. - Comprehension is the target. A clear message can still be based on an uncertain or wrong estimate. - The reader may disagree or decline; no persuasion or non-consensual testing is authorised. ### Required or supplied materials - The fictional delivery scenario in the fixture caption - A blank baseline-message and teach-back prediction worksheet - The six-item checklist: window, number plus plain language, source, limit, action and change trigger - The uncertainty labels ALEATORY, EPISTEMIC and MIXED - The staged model message and teach-back key, opened only after the learner's baseline and repair are locked ### Supplied fixture Scenario: of 80 similar deliveries, 56 arrived Tuesday–Thursday, 12 earlier and 12 later. A new carrier backlog may make history less representative. If absent Thursday at 17:00, the fictional coordinator asks for an update. The fixture is blank so the baseline cannot be contaminated by a supplied draft. | Stage | Learner message | Expected reader teach-back | Uncertainty type | Checklist score out of 6 | Missing element or repair | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Baseline — key closed | [write] | [predict] | [classify] | [score] | [preserve omissions] | | Repair — key still closed | [rewrite] | [predict again] | [preserve classification] | [rescore] | [state exact repair] | | Model comparison — key open | [do not copy into baseline] | [compare] | [check] | [compare] | [record remaining gap] | ## 1. Read only the scenario caption Read only the scenario caption. Write your own baseline message and one expected reader teach-back before opening the staged key. Why: “Read only the scenario caption” creates the auditable value, condition or statement needed for the tutorial’s later comparison and conclusion. Success check: A legible entry directly completes “Read only the scenario caption” and records the requested condition, decision or boundary without adding a new claim. Accessible alternative: Complete the same research action — “Read only the scenario caption. Write your own baseline message and one expected reader teach-back before opening the staged key.” — using speech-to-text, text-to-speech, enlarged text, keyboard-only navigation, shorter work blocks or a support person. Preserve this declared check: “A legible entry directly completes “Read only the scenario caption” and records the requested condition, decision or boundary without adding a new claim.” Do not convert the research task into capability practice. Alternative relationship: Target preserving when declared check is preserved Learner notes: ________________________________________________________________________________ Completed: [ ] ## 2. Calculate in-window, early and late proportions from all 80 deliveries Calculate in-window, early and late proportions from all 80 deliveries. Why: “Calculate in-window, early and late proportions from all 80 deliveries” creates the auditable value, condition or statement needed for the tutorial’s later comparison and conclusion. Success check: The work shows the value requested by “Calculate in-window, early and late proportions from all 80 deliveries”, retains the supplied units or signs and leaves any unsupported value unknown. Accessible alternative: Complete the same research action — “Calculate in-window, early and late proportions from all 80 deliveries.” — using speech-to-text, text-to-speech, enlarged text, keyboard-only navigation, shorter work blocks or a support person. Preserve this declared check: “The work shows the value requested by “Calculate in-window, early and late proportions from all 80 deliveries”, retains the supplied units or signs and leaves any unsupported value unknown.” Do not convert the research task into capability practice. Alternative relationship: Target preserving when declared check is preserved Learner notes: ________________________________________________________________________________ Completed: [ ] ## 3. Name the uncertainty: delivery-to-delivery variation is aleatory Name the uncertainty: delivery-to-delivery variation is aleatory; uncertainty about whether history still represents the new backlog is epistemic; together the message has mixed uncertainty. Why: “Name the uncertainty: delivery-to-delivery variation is aleatory” establishes the exact Uncertainty communication question or boundary that every later comparison must preserve. Success check: Evidence of completion shows the learner followed this exact instruction without adding an unstated step: “Name the uncertainty: delivery-to-delivery variation is aleatory; uncertainty about whether history still represents the new backlog is epistemic; together the message has mixed uncertainty.” Accessible alternative: Complete “Name the uncertainty: delivery-to-delivery variation is aleatory; uncertainty about whether history still represents the new backlog is epistemic; together the message has mixed uncertainty.” in shorter passes, or use keyboard input, dictation or a support person, while preserving this success check: “Evidence of completion shows the learner followed this exact instruction without adding an unstated step: “Name the uncertainty: delivery-to-delivery variation is aleatory; uncertainty about whether history still represents the new backlog is epistemic; together the message has mixed uncertainty.”” Use text-to-speech, enlarged text, keyboard navigation, shorter sessions, a support person or an equivalent non-practical record format as needed. Accessibility changes must not enlarge practical authority. Alternative relationship: Target preserving when declared check is preserved Learner notes: ________________________________________________________________________________ Completed: [ ] ## 4. Score your baseline for window, number plus plain language, source, limit, action… Score your baseline for window, number plus plain language, source, limit, action and change trigger. Preserve the first score. Why: “Score your baseline for window, number plus plain language, source, limit, action and change trigger” creates the auditable value, condition or statement needed for the tutorial’s later comparison and conclusion. Success check: The work shows the value requested by “Score your baseline for window, number plus plain language, source, limit, action and change trigger”, retains the supplied units or signs and leaves any unsupported value unknown. Accessible alternative: Replace small or visual-only information with enlarged text, high-contrast display, spoken description or tactile/verbal cueing while preserving the same decision and success check. Use text-to-speech, enlarged text, keyboard navigation, shorter sessions, a support person or an equivalent non-practical record format as needed. Accessibility changes must not enlarge practical authority. Alternative relationship: Target preserving when declared check is preserved Learner notes: ________________________________________________________________________________ Completed: [ ] ## 5. Compare your expected teach-back with the data Compare your expected teach-back with the data. Mark any invented guarantee, missing source, missing variability or missing trigger. Why: “Compare your expected teach-back with the data” isolates the named evidence distinction so the learner can interpret Uncertainty communication without extending the claim. Success check: The output directly answers “Compare your expected teach-back with the data”, names the relevant distinction and stays within the supplied record. Accessible alternative: Complete the same research action — “Compare your expected teach-back with the data. Mark any invented guarantee, missing source, missing variability or missing trigger.” — using speech-to-text, text-to-speech, enlarged text, keyboard-only navigation, shorter work blocks or a support person. Preserve this declared check: “The output directly answers “Compare your expected teach-back with the data”, names the relevant distinction and stays within the supplied record.” Do not convert the research task into capability practice. Alternative relationship: Target preserving when declared check is preserved Learner notes: ________________________________________________________________________________ Completed: [ ] ## 6. Repair your own message without stronger reassurance and write a second teach-back… Repair your own message without stronger reassurance and write a second teach-back prediction. Why: “Repair your own message without stronger reassurance and write a second teach-back prediction” creates the auditable value, condition or statement needed for the tutorial’s later comparison and conclusion. Success check: A legible entry directly completes “Repair your own message without stronger reassurance and write a second teach-back prediction” and records the requested condition, decision or boundary without adding a new claim. Accessible alternative: Complete the same research action — “Repair your own message without stronger reassurance and write a second teach-back prediction.” — using speech-to-text, text-to-speech, enlarged text, keyboard-only navigation, shorter work blocks or a support person. Preserve this declared check: “A legible entry directly completes “Repair your own message without stronger reassurance and write a second teach-back prediction” and records the requested condition, decision or boundary without adding a new claim.” Do not convert the research task into capability practice. Alternative relationship: Target preserving when declared check is preserved Learner notes: ________________________________________________________________________________ Completed: [ ] ## 7. Open the staged model only now Open the staged model only now. Compare field by field and record what your repair still missed; never rewrite the baseline as if the model had been known. Why: “Open the staged model only now” creates the auditable value, condition or statement needed for the tutorial’s later comparison and conclusion. Success check: A legible entry directly completes “Open the staged model only now” and records the requested condition, decision or boundary without adding a new claim. Accessible alternative: Complete the same research action — “Open the staged model only now. Compare field by field and record what your repair still missed; never rewrite the baseline as if the model had been known.” — using speech-to-text, text-to-speech, enlarged text, keyboard-only navigation, shorter work blocks or a support person. Preserve this declared check: “A legible entry directly completes “Open the staged model only now” and records the requested condition, decision or boundary without adding a new claim.” Do not convert the research task into capability practice. Alternative relationship: Target preserving when declared check is preserved Learner notes: ________________________________________________________________________________ Completed: [ ] ## Reflection What changed? ________________________________________________________________________________ What remains difficult? ________________________________________________________________________________ What will I repeat, adapt, ask for help with, or stop? ________________________________________________________________________________ --- Completion of this worksheet demonstrates tutorial participation only. It does not establish capability, qualification, safety clearance, diagnosis, treatment or independent validation.