# PWR-121 — Confidence calibration: learner worksheet Release: Revision 7T · Full Tutorial Edition Estimated time: Estimated 19 min reading and worksheet pass Difficulty: Introductory Equipment: Basic stationery or digital tools — The twelve supplied questions with answer and confidence columns; The answer key, kept covered until all twelve answers and confidence ratings are locked; A calculation sheet or spreadsheet; For the delayed check, a fresh objective twelve-question set from the same topic with a trustworthy hidden key; do not reuse these questions Space: Desk / seated Automated structural checklist: 10 of 10 structural checks present Evidence quality/context: G1; Detailed research depth Automated method-quality band: Established Method-rating basis: Structure coverage, instruction/check specificity, alternative distinctness, source troubleshooting, comparison depth and whether purpose/check fields are authored rather than derived. Editorial review: Pending manual editorial sign off ## Before you begin - [ ] I read the tutorial authority and stop conditions. - [ ] I have the required equipment/space or a declared accessible alternative. ## Canonical source context Confidence calibration asks whether answers given with a stated confidence are correct about that often. This lesson teaches the method on twelve objective two-choice questions: answer first, record confidence before feedback, preserve errors, group results by confidence and compare confidence with accuracy. Twelve items teach the calculation; they do not establish a stable trait or a reliable personal calibration score. Target outcome: Define confidence calibration without inheriting mythology or broader claims. Explain what the current evidence supports and what it does not establish. Use the declared measurement boundary and recognise misleading proxies. Complete only the separately governed capability practice inside its declared limits. Make a retention, transfer, maintenance, provider or stop decision without overclaiming. ### Authority and setup conditions - Do not use this small benign set to rank people, infer intelligence, screen cognition or make school, work, clinical or eligibility decisions. - The supplied four-item example bins are deliberately small and teach arithmetic only. Report n every time; do not call a pattern stable until it has been repeated across a much larger set of resolved questions from the same topic. - Choose the answer, then record confidence, then lock both before opening the key. Never change either after feedback and never delete errors. ### Required or supplied materials - The twelve supplied questions with answer and confidence columns - The answer key, kept covered until all twelve answers and confidence ratings are locked - A calculation sheet or spreadsheet - For the delayed check, a fresh objective twelve-question set from the same topic with a trustworthy hidden key; do not reuse these questions ### Supplied fixture Fill the final two columns before opening the answer key. | Item id | Question | Option a | Option b | Learner response before key | Learner confidence percent before key | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Q1 | What is 7 x 8? | 54 | 56 | [A/B] | [50/60/70/80/90/100] | | Q2 | Sum of a triangle's interior angles? | 180 degrees | 360 degrees | [A/B] | [50/60/70/80/90/100] | | Q3 | Which fraction equals 0.25? | 1/3 | 1/4 | [A/B] | [50/60/70/80/90/100] | | Q4 | Next: 2, 4, 8, 16? | 24 | 32 | [A/B] | [50/60/70/80/90/100] | | Q5 | What is 15% of 200? | 30 | 35 | [A/B] | [50/60/70/80/90/100] | | Q6 | Median of 2, 4, 9? | 4 | 5 | [A/B] | [50/60/70/80/90/100] | | Q7 | Metres in one kilometre? | 100 | 1000 | [A/B] | [50/60/70/80/90/100] | | Q8 | Is 3/5 larger than 2/3? | Yes | No | [A/B] | [50/60/70/80/90/100] | | Q9 | Area of a 3 by 4 rectangle? | 12 | 14 | [A/B] | [50/60/70/80/90/100] | | Q10 | Only even prime? | 1 | 2 | [A/B] | [50/60/70/80/90/100] | | Q11 | 0.40 + 0.35? | 0.75 | 0.85 | [A/B] | [50/60/70/80/90/100] | | Q12 | Fair die probability of greater than 4? | 1/2 | 1/3 | [A/B] | [50/60/70/80/90/100] | ## 1. Cover the answer key Cover the answer key. Use the same confidence labels for the whole lesson: 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90% or 100%. Why: “Cover the answer key” carries the authored Confidence calibration method into a reviewable output without adding an unstated task, dose or claim. Success check: Evidence of completion shows the learner followed this exact instruction without adding an unstated step: “Cover the answer key. Use the same confidence labels for the whole lesson: 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90% or 100%.” Accessible alternative: Complete “Cover the answer key. Use the same confidence labels for the whole lesson: 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90% or 100%.” in shorter passes, or use keyboard input, dictation or a support person, while preserving this success check: “Evidence of completion shows the learner followed this exact instruction without adding an unstated step: “Cover the answer key. Use the same confidence labels for the whole lesson: 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90% or 100%.”” Use text-to-speech, enlarged text, keyboard navigation, shorter sessions, a support person or an equivalent non-practical record format as needed. Accessibility changes must not enlarge practical authority. Alternative relationship: Target preserving when declared check is preserved Learner notes: ________________________________________________________________________________ Completed: [ ] ## 2. For each question, choose A or B first For each question, choose A or B first. Immediately record how confident you are, then lock both entries before moving on. Why: “For each question, choose A or B first” fixes the exact Confidence calibration configuration or decision before later observations are compared. Success check: A legible entry directly completes “For each question, choose A or B first” and records the requested condition, decision or boundary without adding a new claim. Accessible alternative: Complete the same research action — “For each question, choose A or B first. Immediately record how confident you are, then lock both entries before moving on.” — using speech-to-text, text-to-speech, enlarged text, keyboard-only navigation, shorter work blocks or a support person. Preserve this declared check: “A legible entry directly completes “For each question, choose A or B first” and records the requested condition, decision or boundary without adding a new claim.” Do not convert the research task into capability practice. Alternative relationship: Target preserving when declared check is preserved Learner notes: ________________________________________________________________________________ Completed: [ ] ## 3. After all twelve entries are locked, open the key and score every… After all twelve entries are locked, open the key and score every answer 1 for correct or 0 for wrong. Preserve every error. Why: “After all twelve entries are locked, open the key and score every answer 1 for correct or 0 for wrong” creates the auditable value, condition or statement needed for the tutorial’s later comparison and conclusion. Success check: The work shows the value requested by “After all twelve entries are locked, open the key and score every answer 1 for correct or 0 for wrong”, retains the supplied units or signs and leaves any unsupported value unknown. Accessible alternative: Complete “After all twelve entries are locked, open the key and score every answer 1 for correct or 0 for wrong. Preserve every error.” in shorter passes, or use keyboard input, dictation or a support person, while preserving this success check: “The work shows the value requested by “After all twelve entries are locked, open the key and score every answer 1 for correct or 0 for wrong”, retains the supplied units or signs and leaves any unsupported value unknown.” Use text-to-speech, enlarged text, keyboard navigation, shorter sessions, a support person or an equivalent non-practical record format as needed. Accessibility changes must not enlarge practical authority. Alternative relationship: Target preserving when declared check is preserved Learner notes: ________________________________________________________________________________ Completed: [ ] ## 4. Group questions that have the same confidence Group questions that have the same confidence. For each group, record n, correct count and accuracy = correct divided by n. Why: “Group questions that have the same confidence” creates the auditable value, condition or statement needed for the tutorial’s later comparison and conclusion. Success check: A legible entry directly completes “Group questions that have the same confidence” and records the requested condition, decision or boundary without adding a new claim. Accessible alternative: Complete the same research action — “Group questions that have the same confidence. For each group, record n, correct count and accuracy = correct divided by n.” — using speech-to-text, text-to-speech, enlarged text, keyboard-only navigation, shorter work blocks or a support person. Preserve this declared check: “A legible entry directly completes “Group questions that have the same confidence” and records the requested condition, decision or boundary without adding a new claim.” Do not convert the research task into capability practice. Alternative relationship: Target preserving when declared check is preserved Learner notes: ________________________________________________________________________________ Completed: [ ] ## 5. For each group, calculate signed gap = confidence minus accuracy For each group, calculate signed gap = confidence minus accuracy. A positive gap means confidence was higher than accuracy in that group; a negative gap means it was lower. Why: “For each group, calculate signed gap = confidence minus accuracy” creates the auditable value, condition or statement needed for the tutorial’s later comparison and conclusion. Success check: The work shows the value requested by “For each group, calculate signed gap = confidence minus accuracy”, retains the supplied units or signs and leaves any unsupported value unknown. Accessible alternative: Complete the same research action — “For each group, calculate signed gap = confidence minus accuracy. A positive gap means confidence was higher than accuracy in that group; a negative gap means it was lower.” — using speech-to-text, text-to-speech, enlarged text, keyboard-only navigation, shorter work blocks or a support person. Preserve this declared check: “The work shows the value requested by “For each group, calculate signed gap = confidence minus accuracy”, retains the supplied units or signs and leaves any unsupported value unknown.” Do not convert the research task into capability practice. Alternative relationship: Target preserving when declared check is preserved Learner notes: ________________________________________________________________________________ Completed: [ ] ## 6. Write one feedback action limited to the same topic Write one feedback action limited to the same topic. Do not change future confidence from a four-item bin alone; keep collecting resolved questions. Why: “Write one feedback action limited to the same topic” creates the auditable value, condition or statement needed for the tutorial’s later comparison and conclusion. Success check: A legible entry directly completes “Write one feedback action limited to the same topic” and records the requested condition, decision or boundary without adding a new claim. Accessible alternative: Complete the same research action — “Write one feedback action limited to the same topic. Do not change future confidence from a four-item bin alone; keep collecting resolved questions.” — using speech-to-text, text-to-speech, enlarged text, keyboard-only navigation, shorter work blocks or a support person. Preserve this declared check: “A legible entry directly completes “Write one feedback action limited to the same topic” and records the requested condition, decision or boundary without adding a new claim.” Do not convert the research task into capability practice. Alternative relationship: Target preserving when declared check is preserved Learner notes: ________________________________________________________________________________ Completed: [ ] ## 7. After at least seven days, repeat the sequence on a fresh twelve-question… After at least seven days, repeat the sequence on a fresh twelve-question set from the same topic. Compare only confidence groups present in both records and report n beside every percentage. Why: “After at least seven days, repeat the sequence on a fresh twelve-question set from the same topic” isolates the named evidence distinction so the learner can interpret Confidence calibration without extending the claim. Success check: The output directly answers “After at least seven days, repeat the sequence on a fresh twelve-question set from the same topic”, names the relevant distinction and stays within the supplied record. Accessible alternative: Complete the same research action — “After at least seven days, repeat the sequence on a fresh twelve-question set from the same topic. Compare only confidence groups present in both records and report n beside every percentage.” — using speech-to-text, text-to-speech, enlarged text, keyboard-only navigation, shorter work blocks or a support person. Preserve this declared check: “The output directly answers “After at least seven days, repeat the sequence on a fresh twelve-question set from the same topic”, names the relevant distinction and stays within the supplied record.” Do not convert the research task into capability practice. Alternative relationship: Target preserving when declared check is preserved Learner notes: ________________________________________________________________________________ Completed: [ ] ## Reflection What changed? ________________________________________________________________________________ What remains difficult? ________________________________________________________________________________ What will I repeat, adapt, ask for help with, or stop? ________________________________________________________________________________ --- Completion of this worksheet demonstrates tutorial participation only. It does not establish capability, qualification, safety clearance, diagnosis, treatment or independent validation.