# PWR-119 — Decision under uncertainty: learner worksheet Release: Revision 7T · Full Tutorial Edition Estimated time: Estimated 25 min reading and worksheet pass Difficulty: Intermediate Equipment: Common household or practice equipment — Exact fictional venue card: accessible indoor room costs £180; courtyard costs £0 if dry and £500 if rain cancels; rain range is 30–50%; both options must retain the supplied step-free route. Two update cards say 25% and 45%, both with no access change; a helper chooses one face down and reveals it only after the switching threshold is committed.; Option–state matrix, calculator and probability-range worksheet.; Decision log with owner, affected roles, reversal and update trigger. Space: Desk / seated Automated structural checklist: 10 of 10 structural checks present Evidence quality/context: G1; Deep research depth Automated method-quality band: Comprehensive Method-rating basis: Structure coverage, instruction/check specificity, alternative distinctness, source troubleshooting, comparison depth and whether purpose/check fields are authored rather than derived. Editorial review: Pending manual editorial sign off ## Before you begin - [ ] I read the tutorial authority and stop conditions. - [ ] I have the required equipment/space or a declared accessible alternative. ## Canonical source context A decision under uncertainty connects options with possible states, probability ranges, consequences, values, rights, reversibility and accountability. This lesson uses a fictional low-stakes venue choice. The learner predeclares objectives and non-negotiable constraints, estimates ranges, calculates one expected-cost comparison, checks sensitivity and records what new fact would change the choice. The worksheet must not choose a real clinical, legal, political, employment, financial or safety option. Target outcome: The learner produces a traceable fictional decision record with options, probability ranges, consequences, protected constraints, sensitivity analysis, threshold and update rule. ### Authority and setup conditions - Write FICTIONAL PRACTICE at the top. - Name the decision owner and protected constraints supplied by the case. - Keep probabilities as ranges when evidence does not justify a point estimate. ### Required or supplied materials - Exact fictional venue card: accessible indoor room costs £180; courtyard costs £0 if dry and £500 if rain cancels; rain range is 30–50%; both options must retain the supplied step-free route. Two update cards say 25% and 45%, both with no access change; a helper chooses one face down and reveals it only after the switching threshold is committed. - Option–state matrix, calculator and probability-range worksheet. - Decision log with owner, affected roles, reversal and update trigger. ## 1. Frame the decision State the question, decision time, owner, affected roles and what success means. Why: A clear frame prevents silent changes in objective or authority. Success check: One sentence names owner, options and deadline. Accessible alternative: Complete “State the question, decision time, owner, affected roles and what success means.” in shorter passes, or use keyboard input, dictation or a support person, while preserving this success check: “One sentence names owner, options and deadline.” Allow calculator, spreadsheet or scribe support with assumptions visible. Alternative relationship: Target preserving when declared check is preserved Learner notes: ________________________________________________________________________________ Completed: [ ] ## 2. List options and protected constraints Write every available option and mark any accessibility, consent or safety requirement that no score may override. Why: Some values are constraints, not prices in an average. Success check: Each option is checked against non-negotiable conditions first. Accessible alternative: Complete the same research action — “Write every available option and mark any accessibility, consent or safety requirement that no score may override.” — using speech-to-text, text-to-speech, enlarged text, keyboard-only navigation, shorter work blocks or a support person. Preserve this declared check: “Each option is checked against non-negotiable conditions first.” Do not convert the research task into capability practice. Alternative relationship: Target preserving when declared check is preserved Learner notes: ________________________________________________________________________________ Completed: [ ] ## 3. Define uncertain states List mutually distinct future states and probability ranges using the supplied base rate and evidence. Why: Explicit states prevent vague best-case storytelling. Success check: Ranges are bounded and their assumptions are cited. Accessible alternative: Complete the same research action — “List mutually distinct future states and probability ranges using the supplied base rate and evidence.” — using speech-to-text, text-to-speech, enlarged text, keyboard-only navigation, shorter work blocks or a support person. Preserve this declared check: “Ranges are bounded and their assumptions are cited.” Do not convert the research task into capability practice. Alternative relationship: Target preserving when declared check is preserved Learner notes: ________________________________________________________________________________ Completed: [ ] ## 4. Map consequences For each option–state pair, record cost, delay, burden and who experiences it. Keep unlike outcomes in separate columns. Why: A single total can hide distribution and value conflict. Success check: Every cell has concrete consequences and affected role. Accessible alternative: Complete the same research action — “For each option–state pair, record cost, delay, burden and who experiences it. Keep unlike outcomes in separate columns.” — using speech-to-text, text-to-speech, enlarged text, keyboard-only navigation, shorter work blocks or a support person. Preserve this declared check: “Every cell has concrete consequences and affected role.” Do not convert the research task into capability practice. Alternative relationship: Target preserving when declared check is preserved Learner notes: ________________________________________________________________________________ Completed: [ ] ## 5. Classify reversibility and information value Mark which fictional options can be trialled, delayed or reversed and what useful information each would produce before commitment. Record any cost of waiting. Why: A reversible step can preserve options, but delay can also impose a real consequence. Success check: Each option has a reversal route, information gain and waiting cost or is explicitly marked irreversible. Accessible alternative: Complete the same research action — “Mark which fictional options can be trialled, delayed or reversed and what useful information each would produce before commitment. Record any cost of waiting.” — using speech-to-text, text-to-speech, enlarged text, keyboard-only navigation, shorter work blocks or a support person. Preserve this declared check: “Each option has a reversal route, information gain and waiting cost or is explicitly marked irreversible.” Do not convert the research task into capability practice. Alternative relationship: Target preserving when declared check is preserved Learner notes: ________________________________________________________________________________ Completed: [ ] ## 6. Calculate and test sensitivity For each option, calculate expected cost by multiplying each state probability by that option’s cost in the state and adding the products: Σ probability(state) × cost(option,state). Use probabilities as decimals that sum to 1. Repeat at the low and high ends of the supplied range; do not average protected constraints. Why: Sensitivity shows whether the choice depends on a fragile estimate. Success check: The record states whether the preferred option changes across the range. Accessible alternative: Complete the same research action — “For each option, calculate expected cost by multiplying each state probability by that option’s cost in the state and adding the products: Σ probability(state) × cost(option,state). Use probabilities as decimals that sum to 1. Repeat at the low and high ends of the supplied range; do not average protected constraints.” — using speech-to-text, text-to-speech, enlarged text, keyboard-only navigation, shorter work blocks or a support person. Preserve this declared check: “The record states whether the preferred option changes across the range.” Do not convert the research task into capability practice. Alternative relationship: Target preserving when declared check is preserved Learner notes: ________________________________________________________________________________ Completed: [ ] ## 7. Choose a threshold and update rule Write the current fictional choice, the reason, what probability or fact would switch it and who would review it. Why: A predeclared threshold supports proportionate updating rather than hindsight. Success check: The final line includes choice, threshold, trigger and reviewer. Accessible alternative: Complete the same research action — “Write the current fictional choice, the reason, what probability or fact would switch it and who would review it.” — using speech-to-text, text-to-speech, enlarged text, keyboard-only navigation, shorter work blocks or a support person. Preserve this declared check: “The final line includes choice, threshold, trigger and reviewer.” Do not convert the research task into capability practice. Alternative relationship: Target preserving when declared check is preserved Learner notes: ________________________________________________________________________________ Completed: [ ] ## Reflection What changed? ________________________________________________________________________________ What remains difficult? ________________________________________________________________________________ What will I repeat, adapt, ask for help with, or stop? ________________________________________________________________________________ --- Completion of this worksheet demonstrates tutorial participation only. It does not establish capability, qualification, safety clearance, diagnosis, treatment or independent validation.