# PWR-055 — Recovery forecasting: learner worksheet Release: Revision 7T · Full Tutorial Edition Estimated time: Estimated 27 min reading and worksheet pass Difficulty: Intermediate Equipment: Common household or practice equipment — A ten-row forecast sheet and ten exact 60-second code-check cards. Each card has eight left/right code pairs and exactly two mismatches: A 4821/4821, 7306/7306, 9145/9154, 2680/2680, 5573/5573, 6419/6419, 8032/8033, 1194/1194; B 3148/3148, 7250/7520, 6681/6681, 9024/9024, 1573/1573, 4862/4867, 2395/2395, 8106/8106; C 5740/5748, 1326/1326, 9951/9951, 4073/4073, 6812/6812, 2509/2509, 7438/7438, 3264/3624; D 8610/8610, 2457/2457, 7039/7039, 1186/1816, 9342/9432, 5270/5270, 6604/6604, 3891/3891; E 4408/4408, 1725/1729, 6931/6931, 8264/8264, 3510/3510, 9072/9072, 5846/5486, 2183/2183; F 7602/7602, 3319/3319, 8457/8475, 1096/1096, 6243/6243, 5780/5788, 2925/2925, 4137/4137; G 9350/9358, 2046/2046, 7812/7812, 5684/5684, 3279/3729, 6501/6501, 1198/1198, 4423/4423; H 2861/2861, 7705/7705, 5314/5314, 9402/9042, 1638/1638, 6257/6257, 8091/8091, 3746/3748; I 6173/6173, 2085/2805, 9541/9541, 4860/4860, 7329/7392, 1507/1507, 8634/8634, 3298/3298; J 7031/7031, 2648/2648, 8195/8159, 4470/4470, 5362/5362, 1904/1904, 6827/6872, 3251/3251.; A folded key giving mismatch positions A 3,7; B 2,6; C 1,8; D 4,5; E 2,7; F 3,6; G 1,5; H 4,8; I 2,5; J 3,7. For each card count hits, misses and false alarms, then calculate actual task score = maximum of 0 and 10 − 2×misses − false alarms. Keep raw counts beside this non-clinical 0–10 score.; A fixed readiness-prediction scale: 0 means expect no reliable code checking today, 5 means expect several uncertain pairs, and 10 means expect all eight decisions correct without a false alarm.; Optional wearable value recorded as one input, with device and version named. Space: Room-scale practice space Automated structural checklist: 10 of 10 structural checks present Evidence quality/context: G2; Deep research depth Automated method-quality band: Comprehensive Method-rating basis: Structure coverage, instruction/check specificity, alternative distinctness, source troubleshooting, comparison depth and whether purpose/check fields are authored rather than derived. Editorial review: Pending manual editorial sign off ## Before you begin - [ ] I read the tutorial authority and stop conditions. - [ ] I have the required equipment/space or a declared accessible alternative. ## Canonical source context Recovery forecasts may help planning, but a score is only as good as its device, model, context and calibration. A recovery forecast is useful only when made before the outcome and checked later. The learner predicts one benign task from declared inputs, measures the actual result, calculates error across repeated days and changes only one forecast rule. Wearable scores remain inputs, not authority. Target outcome: The learner completes ten prospective predictions for the supplied 60-second code-check cards and reports signed error, mean absolute error, prediction-band calibration and whether one revised rule helped on fresh cards. ### Authority and setup conditions - Choose a task whose poor result cannot harm anyone; do not use driving, medication, water, heights or work clearance. - Use the supplied 60-second card rule and actual-score formula unchanged on all ten rows. - Keep task difficulty and time similar across days. - If severe or unexplained symptoms exist, seek care rather than running a forecast. ### Required or supplied materials - A ten-row forecast sheet and ten exact 60-second code-check cards. Each card has eight left/right code pairs and exactly two mismatches: A 4821/4821, 7306/7306, 9145/9154, 2680/2680, 5573/5573, 6419/6419, 8032/8033, 1194/1194; B 3148/3148, 7250/7520, 6681/6681, 9024/9024, 1573/1573, 4862/4867, 2395/2395, 8106/8106; C 5740/5748, 1326/1326, 9951/9951, 4073/4073, 6812/6812, 2509/2509, 7438/7438, 3264/3624; D 8610/8610, 2457/2457, 7039/7039, 1186/1816, 9342/9432, 5270/5270, 6604/6604, 3891/3891; E 4408/4408, 1725/1729, 6931/6931, 8264/8264, 3510/3510, 9072/9072, 5846/5486, 2183/2183; F 7602/7602, 3319/3319, 8457/8475, 1096/1096, 6243/6243, 5780/5788, 2925/2925, 4137/4137; G 9350/9358, 2046/2046, 7812/7812, 5684/5684, 3279/3729, 6501/6501, 1198/1198, 4423/4423; H 2861/2861, 7705/7705, 5314/5314, 9402/9042, 1638/1638, 6257/6257, 8091/8091, 3746/3748; I 6173/6173, 2085/2805, 9541/9541, 4860/4860, 7329/7392, 1507/1507, 8634/8634, 3298/3298; J 7031/7031, 2648/2648, 8195/8159, 4470/4470, 5362/5362, 1904/1904, 6827/6872, 3251/3251. - A folded key giving mismatch positions A 3,7; B 2,6; C 1,8; D 4,5; E 2,7; F 3,6; G 1,5; H 4,8; I 2,5; J 3,7. For each card count hits, misses and false alarms, then calculate actual task score = maximum of 0 and 10 − 2×misses − false alarms. Keep raw counts beside this non-clinical 0–10 score. - A fixed readiness-prediction scale: 0 means expect no reliable code checking today, 5 means expect several uncertain pairs, and 10 means expect all eight decisions correct without a false alarm. - Optional wearable value recorded as one input, with device and version named. ## 1. Define the future task Write the next unused card letter, 60-second limit, mismatch-marking rule, actual-score formula and planned clock time before looking at the folded key. Why: A forecast needs a fixed target, not a general feeling. Success check: Another person could run the same task from the description. Accessible alternative: Complete the same research action — “Write the next unused card letter, 60-second limit, mismatch-marking rule, actual-score formula and planned clock time before looking at the folded key.” — using speech-to-text, text-to-speech, enlarged text, keyboard-only navigation, shorter work blocks or a support person. Preserve this declared check: “Another person could run the same task from the description.” Do not convert the research task into capability practice. Alternative relationship: Target preserving when declared check is preserved Learner notes: ________________________________________________________________________________ Completed: [ ] ## 2. Choose declared inputs Record only the inputs chosen in advance: sleep opportunity, symptoms, prior load, caffeine timing and optional named device score. Why: Adding favourable inputs afterward creates hindsight bias. Success check: The row has the same input columns each day. Accessible alternative: Complete the same research action — “Record only the inputs chosen in advance: sleep opportunity, symptoms, prior load, caffeine timing and optional named device score.” — using speech-to-text, text-to-speech, enlarged text, keyboard-only navigation, shorter work blocks or a support person. Preserve this declared check: “The row has the same input columns each day.” Do not convert the research task into capability practice. Alternative relationship: Target preserving when declared check is preserved Learner notes: ________________________________________________________________________________ Completed: [ ] ## 3. Make the prediction first Before the task, predict readiness from 0 to 10 and the concrete task result, then lock the row. Why: Prospective prediction can be tested; retrospective explanation cannot. Success check: The prediction has a timestamp earlier than the task result. Accessible alternative: Complete the same research action — “Before the task, predict readiness from 0 to 10 and the concrete task result, then lock the row.” — using speech-to-text, text-to-speech, enlarged text, keyboard-only navigation, shorter work blocks or a support person. Preserve this declared check: “The prediction has a timestamp earlier than the task result.” Do not convert the research task into capability practice. Alternative relationship: Target preserving when declared check is preserved Learner notes: ________________________________________________________________________________ Completed: [ ] ## 4. Perform the benign task Open the named code card, compare its eight pairs for exactly 60 seconds and circle every suspected mismatch without opening the key or changing aids. Why: A stable outcome makes forecast error interpretable. Success check: Time, item version and support are recorded. Accessible alternative: Complete the same research action — “Open the named code card, compare its eight pairs for exactly 60 seconds and circle every suspected mismatch without opening the key or changing aids.” — using speech-to-text, text-to-speech, enlarged text, keyboard-only navigation, shorter work blocks or a support person. Preserve this declared check: “Time, item version and support are recorded.” Do not convert the research task into capability practice. Alternative relationship: Target preserving when declared check is preserved Learner notes: ________________________________________________________________________________ Completed: [ ] ## 5. Score the actual result Open the folded key, count hits, misses and false alarms, then compute actual score = maximum of 0 and 10 − 2×misses − false alarms. Why: Confidence and effort are not the outcome. Success check: The raw counts remain beside the converted score. Accessible alternative: Complete “Open the folded key, count hits, misses and false alarms, then compute actual score = maximum of 0 and 10 − 2×misses − false alarms.” in shorter passes, or use keyboard input, dictation or a support person, while preserving this success check: “The raw counts remain beside the converted score.” Retain normal aids and score supported performance as the declared configuration. Alternative relationship: Target preserving when declared check is preserved Learner notes: ________________________________________________________________________________ Completed: [ ] ## 6. Calculate forecast error Subtract predicted from actual score and also record the absolute difference. Why: Signed error shows optimistic or pessimistic bias; absolute error shows size. Success check: Both numbers are calculated for every row. Accessible alternative: Complete the same research action — “Subtract predicted from actual score and also record the absolute difference.” — using speech-to-text, text-to-speech, enlarged text, keyboard-only navigation, shorter work blocks or a support person. Preserve this declared check: “Both numbers are calculated for every row.” Do not convert the research task into capability practice. Alternative relationship: Target preserving when declared check is preserved Learner notes: ________________________________________________________________________________ Completed: [ ] ## 7. Check calibration after ten rows Group low, middle and high predictions and compare each group with its mean actual result. Why: One lucky forecast does not establish a useful model. Success check: The report includes all ten rows and group averages. Accessible alternative: Complete the same research action — “Group low, middle and high predictions and compare each group with its mean actual result.” — using speech-to-text, text-to-speech, enlarged text, keyboard-only navigation, shorter work blocks or a support person. Preserve this declared check: “The report includes all ten rows and group averages.” Do not convert the research task into capability practice. Alternative relationship: Target preserving when declared check is preserved Learner notes: ________________________________________________________________________________ Completed: [ ] ## 8. Change one rule If consistently optimistic or pessimistic, alter one input weight or decision threshold and predeclare the next ten-row test. Why: A single change can be evaluated; wholesale rewriting cannot. Success check: The revised rule is written before new outcomes occur. Accessible alternative: A supported, seated, reduced-range or slower version of “If consistently optimistic or pessimistic, alter one input weight or decision threshold and predeclare the next ten-row test.” is equivalent only when it keeps the same trained or measured target, declared configuration and success check: “The revised rule is written before new outcomes occur.” If any of those change, record it as a related alternative rather than an equivalent repetition. Alternative relationship: Conditional equivalence requires target and configuration check Learner notes: ________________________________________________________________________________ Completed: [ ] ## Reflection What changed? ________________________________________________________________________________ What remains difficult? ________________________________________________________________________________ What will I repeat, adapt, ask for help with, or stop? ________________________________________________________________________________ --- Completion of this worksheet demonstrates tutorial participation only. It does not establish capability, qualification, safety clearance, diagnosis, treatment or independent validation.