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TITAN//CAPABILITY
Revision 7T · Full Tutorial Edition · Updated 1 September 2026

PWR-115 · checking page

Check your work: Convert benign events to frequencies, forecast, and score every outcome

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Staged checking material

Answer key

  1. E1: 3/10=0.30; outcome 1; Brier 0.49. E2: 3/6=0.50; outcome 0; Brier 0.25.
  2. E3: 5/20=0.25; outcome 1; Brier 0.5625. E4: 1/8=0.125; outcome 0; Brier 0.015625.
  3. E5: 18/30=0.60; outcome 1; Brier 0.16. E6: 3/4=0.75; outcome 1; Brier 0.0625.
  4. E7: 2/100=0.02; outcome 0; Brier 0.0004. E8: 1/8=0.125; outcome 0; Brier 0.015625.
  5. E9: 1/10=0.10; outcome 1; Brier 0.81. E10: 3/10=0.30; outcome 0; Brier 0.09.
  6. Sum = 2.45665; mean = 2.45665 / 10 = 0.245665. Largest underforecast is E9; largest overforecast among outcome-zero rows is E2. Preserve both rather than reporting only the mean.

Scoring rule

Award 1 point for each correct natural frequency, probability and Brier score across ten rows: 30 points. Add 1 for the correct sum, 1 for the correct mean, 1 for the largest overforecast, 1 for the largest underforecast, 1 for a counter-reason and 1 for a concrete fresh-set method update: 36 total. Deleting or editing a locked forecast makes the aggregate unscorable.

Authority boundary: A governed step-by-step lesson may be completed independently inside its stated limits.